The importation model make the assumption that outbreaks originates with importation of infectious cases and as a result generates Catalonia-wide cases importation rate and municipality-specific probability of receiving the next importation. In order to calculate such rates this model takes into account historical arbovirus data; sociological predictors such as municipality population size, poverty indices, education indexes, health insurance measurements, among others.
With this information and after identify relevant predictive variables (by methods such as backward selection or AIC) we can generate the simulates rates through a Bayesian–MaxEnt predictive framework.
Maximum entropy methods are very general ways to predict probability distributions given constraints on their moments. This methods can predict relative abundance distributions based on the number of individuals, species and total energy of the system. Also predict community composition along ecological gradients based on traits, species’ distributions based on environmental covariates and associations in food webs.
The basic reproduction number R0, can be defined as the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population. This metric is useful because it helps determine whether or not an infectious disease can spread through a population. When R0 < 1 the infection will die out in the long run. But if R0 > 1 the infection will be able to spread in a population.