By selecting a Risk Scenario we can visualize information related to the simulations, such as the distribution of outbreaks and temporal series of the cases.
Different results can be selected from the selection panel. It is possible to visualize all kinds of relevant data related to the simulations, including reported cases, total cases and local cases.
Using a Monte Carlo approach to produce a parameter distribution of R0, we generate the following scenarios:
- Low risk scenario: quantile 25 from the fitted R0 distribution
- Medium risk scenario: quantile 50 from the fitted R0 distribution
- High risk scenario: quantile 90 from the fitted R0 distribution
The following variables can be visualised on the platform map:
- Mosquito Abundance: Relative mosquito abundance calculated using the data provided by the Mosquito Alert platform.
- R0: Is the Basic Reproduction Number. This is the number of secondary cases arising from a single infection.
- Temp: Is the mean temperature for the current period.
- Average Mosquito Alert: Data provided by the Mosquito Alert platform, which provides information on the probability of mosquito presence.
- Importation Risk: The risk of an imported arboviral case derived from the historical data on reported cases.
To explore the platform, please click this link.